By: Brandon Sauerwein
I’m reaching out with an important market observation that caught my attention today.
Right now, we’re seeing a fascinating divergence in market sentiment. Earlier this week, the Stock Market Fear and Greed Index fell to 26 — hovering just above “Extreme Fear” territory. To put this in perspective, any reading below 25 signals panic in the markets.
But here’s where it gets interesting…
While stock market investors are clutching their pearls, the cryptocurrency market tells a completely different story. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a robust 63, indicating growing confidence and even potential FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among investors.
What does this tell us?
Let’s look at a telling shift in crypto sentiment:
- July 2024: Bitcoin price at $59,000 – Fear & Greed Index: 33 (Fear)
- January 2025: Bitcoin price over $100,000 – Fear & Greed Index: 63 (Greed)
When people are twice as confident buying at over $100,000 than they were at $59,000, it’s worth pausing to consider what’s driving that confidence. Are investors making calculated decisions, or are they simply chasing returns?
History shows us a consistent pattern when we see this kind of market behavior:
- During the 2017 crypto boom, Bitcoin soared to nearly $20,000 in December while traditional markets showed fear. In the following year 2018, gold climbed roughly +12% as Bitcoin fell nearly –80%.
- In mid-2019, as crypto sentiment hit “Extreme Greed,” gold began a remarkable rally from $1,400 to $1,700 per ounce.
- The 2021 crypto peak ($69,000 Bitcoin) coincided with traditional market uncertainty. Since Bitcoin’s peak in November 2021, gold is up roughly 53%.
Why does gold often shine in these scenarios?
It’s simple: When traditional markets signal recession fears while crypto shows signs of speculative excess, investors historically turn to gold’s 5,000-year track record as a store of value. Unlike cryptocurrencies, gold’s worth isn’t built on market enthusiasm – it’s built on scarcity and enduring trust through centuries of market cycles.
Don’t forget about silver – often called ‘poor man’s gold,’ it tends to follow gold’s trends but with higher volatility, potentially offering greater upside for risk-tolerant investors.
Remember, while these patterns are intriguing, they’re not guarantees.
However, today’s signals look strikingly familiar: extreme fear in stocks (26) paired with growing crypto greed (63). For strategic investors, these sentiment extremes often mark ideal entry points for precious metals positions.
Market Update: Gold & Silver Performance
As of noon Friday, January 17th, 2025:
- Gold continues to demonstrate momentum in 2025, up around +3.5% since the beginning of the year. LEARN MORE
- Meanwhile, silver has outpaced gold with an impressive 5.1% gain year-to-date. LEARN MORE
While typically following gold’s directional trends, silver’s greater industrial applications and smaller market size often result in more pronounced price movements – a characteristic that can present unique opportunities for investors seeking higher growth potential.
Want to understand the broader context? Dive into our market analysis on the Hard Assets Alliance blog 2024 Year in Review to explore the factors driving gold and other precious metals.
Bullion Fact of the Week
Did you know that if all the existing gold in the world was pulled into a 5 micron thick wire, it could wrap around the world 11.2 million times?
Gold IRAs: The Ultimate Tax-Efficient Account
Did you know a gold IRA offers tax advantages that help you grow your wealth more efficiently? If you’re not investing in one yet, you could be missing out on significant savings. Learn how learn how a precious metal IRA can help you grow your investments more efficiently with our free guide.
What Hard Assets Alliance Clients are Saying
At Hard Assets Alliance, we pride ourselves on providing caring, personalized service to every client and their families. Here’s a recent review that reflects our commitment to you:
If you take a look at Hard Assets Alliance TrustPilot ratings, you’ll see that this kind of thoughtful, understanding service is what you can expect when you work with Hard Assets Alliance.
Whether you’re managing your own portfolio or helping a family member secure their financial future, our team is here to support you.
