Written by: Steven Feldman, CEO Hard Assets Alliance
At this juncture in our global economic landscape, I find myself increasingly selective about which financial news sources I trust. Bloomberg and Financial Times have emerged as my primary mainstream reads, largely because they maintain a refreshing absence of political bias in their reporting. Their recent analyses of market conditions mirror what we’ve been witnessing firsthand at Hard Asset Alliance.
Two articles published simultaneously by these respected outlets caught my attention, as they perfectly capture our current predicament: “The Uncertainty Is Not Going to End” from Bloomberg and “For Markets, It’s the Unpredictability that Is Going to Kill You” from Financial Times. These headlines encapsulate what’s unfolding before our eyes.
The sweeping tariffs announced on April 2nd have sent shockwaves through global markets. As Bloomberg aptly observes, “One of the consequences of the move-fast-and-break-things approach at the core of Trumponomics is that it has brought a toxic uncertainty to the global economy.” More concerning is their assessment that “the uncertainty that Trump is injecting isn’t entirely new — and it’s not going to go away. The predictable pillars of the modern economy are crumbling. The global economy is now a perpetual uncertainty machine.”
The market reaction has been swift and severe. Global stock markets suffered their worst single-day drop since 2020, with the Dow falling nearly 4%, the S&P 500 plunging almost 5%, and the Nasdaq dropping nearly 6%. American companies with significant overseas production took particularly heavy hits. Nike shares lost 14% and Apple fell 9%. This isn’t merely a temporary correction—it represents real fear about our economic trajectory.
What’s most concerning is that the market-killing unpredictability seems by design. The consistent thread running through these policies isn’t economic coherence but rather disruption itself. As Bloomberg notes, “The rolling wall of unsettling disruptions is the plan. Rules and norms be damned.”
Perhaps most troubling is the Financial Times’ observation that markets face “a third, even harder valuation puzzle to solve, because Trump’s tariff policy will always be a moving target.” This moving target creates an environment where capital allocation becomes increasingly difficult. As the FT pointedly states, “Markets, companies and economies are wonderfully supple things. Given time, they will make the trade-offs that high tariffs require. But the capricious policymaking style of the Trump administration has no upside. All it produces is deadweight loss.”
Investment banks are already adjusting their outlooks accordingly, with JP Morgan raising the probability of a global recession by year’s end from 40% to 60%. The Federal Reserve now finds
itself in an impossible position. If tariffs spike inflation while simultaneously weakening growth, the chances of interest rate cuts diminish substantially.
Bloomberg’s economic analysis paints a stark picture: “With tariffs, economists overwhelmingly think the lessons of history are clear: Protectionism hurts everyone and means slower growth. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930, which Trump’s overtook in size and scope this week, prolonged the Great Depression.” This historical parallel is not to be taken lightly.
Gauges of economic policy uncertainty are “running hot and hitting new highs,” according to Bloomberg. In fact, the global uncertainty index reached an all-time high of 429.83 in January—far exceeding its peak of 300 during the Great Depression. This quantification of uncertainty should give us all pause.
The uncertainty is already manifesting in business behavior. As one anonymous respondent told the Institute of Supply Management’s March manufacturing survey: “Business condition is deteriorating at a fast pace. Tariffs and economic uncertainty are making the current business environment challenging.” When business leaders cannot predict what is happening in the world, all but the most courageous tend to hold fire on major allocations of capital or expansions in their workforces.
As Bloomberg aptly concludes, “If there is a committee to save the world forming, it’s doing so in hiding. When a financial market swoon does turn into a crash and set off a deep and prolonged economic disaster, it’s hard to know who will be leading the rescue. That’s the real cost of living in this uncertainty machine.”
In times of such profound market uncertainty, hard assets become not just attractive but essential components of a resilient portfolio. Gold has already hit new record highs as investors seek safer investments. Our clients who have maintained strategic allocations to precious metals are experiencing the protective benefits these assets provide when market volatility strikes.
For those questioning whether this is merely a temporary disruption that markets will quickly absorb—consider that these tariffs represent the steepest American duties in a century. This isn’t a minor policy adjustment; it’s a fundamental restructuring of global economic relationships.
While I typically refrain from making short-term predictions, the evidence suggests we’ve entered a new era of heightened uncertainty. Markets thrive on predictability and wither under uncertainty—and the uncertainty we’re witnessing isn’t likely to dissipate anytime soon. The fog of uncertainty that has clouded markets is thickening rather than clearing.
In these challenging times, maintaining discipline in your investment strategy becomes paramount. Diversification across both geographic regions and asset classes, with a particular emphasis on hard assets that have historically weathered economic storms, remains our recommended approach.
Sincerely,
Steven Feldman
CEO, Hard Assets Alliance
